The US Energy Information Administration
envisages global demand growth in 2019 rising by 1.49 million bpd to 101.45
bpd, higher than its peers, but its estimate for supply growth is near 2
million bpd, Platts reported.
The market is expected to be in deficit
by almost 500,000 bpd in 2019, according to the EIA, as output from
OPEC/non-OPEC deal participants and Canada, factoring in sanctions on
Venezuelan and Iranian oil flows, will not be enough to offset US supply
growth.
The Paris-based International Energy
Agency expects oil consumption in 2019 to rise to 100.6 million bpd from 99.2
million bpd last year, growth of 1.4 million bpd.
Unlike other agencies, it sees global
demand growing faster this year than in 2018 due to "lower prices and the
start-up of petrochemical projects in China and the US."
The IEA, however, said oil markets will
still struggle to absorb fast-growing non-OPEC supply despite sanctions on Iran
and Venezuela and falling OPEC production in 2019.
In terms of oil demand growth, OPEC was
the most bearish in its monthly oil market report, predicting a rise of only
1.24 million bpd, with global consumption at 100 million b/d this year.
The continued strong growth of US shale
oil will soften the blow from the recent US sanctions on Venezuela's
state-owned oil company PDVSA, the IEA said.
"Even so, headline benchmark crude
oil prices have hardly changed on news of the sanctions," the IEA said in
its recent monthly market report. "This is because, in terms of crude oil
quantity, markets may be able to adjust after initial logistical
dislocations."
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