The US Energy
Information Administration envisages global demand growth in 2019 rising by
1.49 million bpd to 101.45 bpd, higher than its peers, but its estimate for
supply growth is near 2 million bpd, Platts reported.
The market is
expected to be in deficit by almost 500,000 bpd in 2019, according to the EIA,
as output from OPEC/non-OPEC deal participants and Canada, factoring in
sanctions on Venezuelan and Iranian oil flows, will not be enough to offset US
supply growth.
The
Paris-based International Energy Agency expects oil consumption in 2019 to rise
to 100.6 million bpd from 99.2 million bpd last year, growth of 1.4 million
bpd.
Unlike other
agencies, it sees global demand growing faster this year than in 2018 due to
"lower prices and the start-up of petrochemical projects in China and the
US."
The IEA,
however, said oil markets will still struggle to absorb fast-growing non-OPEC
supply despite sanctions on Iran and Venezuela and falling OPEC production in
2019.
In terms of
oil demand growth, OPEC was the most bearish in its monthly oil market report,
predicting a rise of only 1.24 million bpd, with global consumption at 100
million b/d this year.
The continued
strong growth of US shale oil will soften the blow from the recent US sanctions
on Venezuela's state-owned oil company PDVSA, the IEA said.
"Even
so, headline benchmark crude oil prices have hardly changed on news of the
sanctions," the IEA said in its recent monthly market report. "This
is because, in terms of crude oil quantity, markets may be able to adjust after
initial logistical dislocations."
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